Every day, the turkey was fed.

Rain or shine. Day after day.

Each morning, the farmer would arrive—grain in hand. And with each repetition, the turkey’s belief grew stronger:

“These humans are good to me. Life is predictable. Tomorrow will be just like today.”

But on day 1,001, everything changed. One swing. No warning. Just silence.

Nassim Taleb calls this The Turkey Problem—a vivid reminder of what happens when we confuse past consistency with future certainty.

And here’s the uncomfortable truth: we do this all the time.

We assume things will continue as they have. That our luck will hold. That this launch will work. That relationship will last. That we’ll never succeed. Or that we’re bound to.

Often, these beliefs feel logical. But they’re not reality-tested. They’re models—mental maps shaped by pattern recognition, not deep thinking.

That’s where The Vantage Framework (TM) comes in, a helpful tool I created to help me think better, inspired by The Turkey Problem.

What Is the Vantage Framework?

The Vantage Framework is a practical tool for thinking better before certainty blinds you. It’s built around one idea:

If your thinking rests on one angle, you’re vulnerable.

But if you triangulate, you see the truth more clearly.

It gives you three critical lenses for checking the quality of your conclusions and not falling blindly into cognitive bias, which is especially important when making good decisions. It starts with assessing:

1. External Perspectives

The core question is:

“What am I not seeing—because I’m inside a governing frame of reference?”

The turkey trusted its own experience. But the butcher—not the turkey—knew Thanksgiving was coming.

The insight? Other people hold perspectives you don’t. Some of them know more. Others see differently. Borrow their lenses and you will see further and be able to 'look around corners' long before others see the blindingly obvious (like the glint of the knife as it begins to swing down).

Ask yourself:

• Who else sees this differently—and why?
• Who has relevant information or context I don’t?
• If someone wanted to prove me wrong, where would they look?

Next, we want to look at:

2. Structural Implications

“What role am I really playing in this system?”

The turkey thought it was the customer. It was the product.

The insight? You’re always part of a bigger structure—organisational, social, strategic. And if you mistake your role, you misread the game and it's only a matter of time before you won't see an imporant and consequential change coming.

Ask yourself:

• What's my role in this system and what are other people's roles?
• What incentives are shaping this environment?
• Who benefits if I’m right—or wrong?

Finally, we look to anticipate asymmetries...

3. Anticipatory Asymmetry

“What hasn’t happened yet—but would matter enormously if it did?”

The turkey’s fatal error: assuming that what hasn’t happened won’t happen.

The turkey's anticipation is perfectly symmetrical and linear. It experiences a positive event (being fed) and expects another identical positive event tomorrow. Its anticipation is one-dimensional: it expects more of the same good thing. It has no framework for seeing a dreaded future that looks very different from its past.

The insight? Just because something is unprecedented doesn’t mean it’s impossible. Absence of evidence ≠ evidence of absence.

Ask yourself:

• What does Thanksgiving look like?
• What risks or opportunities am I underweighting because they feel unlikely?
• What am I assuming is impossible—but might already be underway?

Thinking Better Starts with Seeing Wider

Most poor decisions don’t come from lack of intelligence. They come from certainty without scrutiny. From living inside one lens, one story, one frame.

The Vantage Framework gives you three angles to test your beliefs and expose your blind spots before they cost you.

Because thinking well isn’t about being clever. It’s about being clear.

Test it out for yourself today.

To your success,

Tom